June Revenue Forecast Takeaways: Planning for the 2026 Session

Written By Rebecca Johnson

Our first post takes a closer look at the June revenue forecast and what it signals for the months ahead. We break down the numbers, the governor’s response, and what it means for legislative strategy.

June 2025 Revenue Forecast: Risks Rising Behind the Numbers

Posted by: Rebecca

Date: July 1, 2025

The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released the latest forecast on June 24, 2025. While the top-line numbers look positive, the details tell a more cautious story.

Projected revenue is up, but nearly all that growth is driven by recent tax policy changes rather than underlying economic strength. Even with this new revenue included, Governor Ferguson and the Office of Financial Management are projecting a $720 million shortfall over the next four years compared to what the Legislature assumed when it passed the biennial budget.




Rebecca Johnson